Here is an update from the National Weather Service concerning the severe weather threat for today (3/14) and Saturday (3/15).
Changes from previous update: Earlier timing for Saturday, otherwise no large changes
Overview:
WHAT: MARGINAL RISK of Severe Weather today (3/14) and a MODERATE RISK of Severe Weather on Saturday (3/15).
WHEN:
Today–Mid-afternoon through early Saturday morning (3PM to 2AM).
Saturday–Mainly between 9AM and 10PM.
WHERE: All of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi, especially along and north of the I-10/12 corridor.
CONFIDENCE:
- Today:
- Confidence is high that there will be scattered thunderstorms across the area.
- Confidence is medium regarding the severe storms and timing of those storms developing.
- Saturday:
- We are confident there will be thunderstorms across the area, and that a few to several of them will be severe.
- Confidence is medium in timing and high with severe weather risk.
- High confidence that any severe thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail greater than an inch in diameter, and tornadoes.
- Confidence is higher along and north of the I-10/12 corridor for locally heavy rainfall of up to 2-3 inches, but most places are unlikely to exceed 2 inch rain totals.
Impacts:
Today – The main threats associated with any severe storms will be: damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, large hail of up to 1 inch in diameter, and a tornado cannot be ruled out.
Saturday – The main threats associated with any severe storms will be:
- Damaging wind gusts in excess of 60-80 mph. Winds of this magnitude are capable of causing damage to trees, structures impacted by nearby trees, and power lines, leading to isolated/scattered power outages
- Large hail of up to 2 inches in diameter. Hail of this size is capable of causing damage to crops and causing injury to people and animals.
- Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong and/or long-tracked.
- Runoff will lead to ponding of water in low lying areas and areas of poor drainage. Isolated flash flooding, especially over urban areas cannot be ruled out.
