Here is an update concerning the severe weather threat today and Saturday:
Changes from previous update:
- The threat of severe weather has increased and shifted southward for Saturday.
- No significant changes to the severe weather risk for Friday.
Overview:
WHAT: MARGINAL RISK of Severe Weather on Friday and an ENHANCED RISK of Severe Weather on Saturday.
WHEN: Friday afternoon and evening and again on Saturday (exact timing less certain at this time).
WHERE: For Friday: Along and east of the I-55 corridor. For Saturday: All of southeast LA and southern MS, especially along and north of the I-10/12 corridor.
CONFIDENCE:
- There is medium confidence in an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm developing near or east of the I-55 corridor during the afternoon hours today, especially in southern MS.
- Confidence is increasing in the risk of scattered severe thunderstorms developing on Saturday, especially along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. In particular, the risk of impacts from damaging winds and tornadoes.
- Confidence is low in the timing of these storms especially because there could be 2-3 rounds of storms on Saturday through Saturday night. However, the earliest possible impacts from severe thunderstorms would be between 9AM and Noon.
Impacts:
The main threats associated with any severe storms will be:
Damaging Winds:
- Severe thunderstorms will be capable of wind gusts greater than 60 mph.
- Winds of this magnitude are capable of causing damage to trees and power lines, leading to isolated power outages.
Large Hail:
- Severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail of up to 1 inch in diameter.
- Hail of this size is capable of causing damage to cars/crops and causing injury to people and animals.
Tornadoes:
- A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
Rainfall:
- Rainfall of up to 1″ is in the forecast, but this is not enough to cause flood concerns at this time.
Damaging Winds:
- Severe thunderstorms will be capable of wind gusts greater than 70 mph.
- Winds of this magnitude are capable of downing trees or large tree limbs leading to structural damage and scattered power outages, and can also cause damage to weaker structures.
Large Hail:
- Severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail of up to 1.5 inch in diameter.
- Hail of this size is capable of causing damage to cars/crops and causing injury to people and animals.
Tornadoes:
- Severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing tornadoes and a few could be strong and/or long-tracked.
Rainfall:
- In addition to the severe weather threat, rainfall of up to 2 inches is forecast with localized areas of 3″ or greater if storms track over the same areas. Heaviest rainfall will be focused along and north of the I-10/12 corridor.
- Runoff could lead to ponding of water in low lying areas and areas of poor drainage
