Here is an update concerning the heavy rain and severe weather threat today and tonight:
Changes from previous update: Confidence has increased that a swath of heavier rainfall will be focused mainly along the coast and offshore through the day today.
Overview:
WHAT: MARGINAL RISK of Heavy Rain that could lead to flash flooding and a MARGINAL RISK of Severe Weather.
WHEN: Mid-late morning through Friday evening.
WHERE: All of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi, especially the immediate coast.
CONFIDENCE:
- We are confident there will be increasing showers and storms across the area. We have less confidence that any of them will result in heavy rainfall/flash flooding.
- Confidence is highest for locally heavy rainfall to occur along the immediate coastal areas of Louisiana.
- The severe weather threat is less certain as a few embedded strong/severe storms could form farther inland, while there is also a chance for strong/severe storms embedded within the heavier rain along the coast.
Rainfall Impacts:
- Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is currently forecast. There is a 10% chance of localized amounts of 5 inches or more mainly along the immediate coast.
- Higher rainfall rates of 1-2″ per hour could lead to runoff with ponding of water in urban and low lying areas resulting in localized flash flooding.
- As water drains into area rivers, there will be a threat of minor to moderate flooding along some rivers as some rivers have already started receding from rainfall earlier in the week while others are still cresting.
Severe Weather Impacts: The main threats associated with any severe storms will be:
Damaging Winds:
- Wind gusts greater than 60 mph are possible.
- Winds of this magnitude are capable of causing damage to trees and power lines, leading to isolated/scattered power outages.
Large Hail:
- Large hail of up to 1 inch in diameter will be possible.
- Hail of this size is capable of causing damage to crops and causing injury to people and animals.
Tornadoes:
- A tornado cannot be ruled out, mainly along the immediate coast. The most likely scenario would be from a waterspout moving onshore.
