Here is an update concerning the severe weather threat today, January 9 into Saturday, January 10:
Changes from previous update:
- The area of greatest threat has expanded south and east.
- The threat of heavy rain has increased. In particular, a MODERATE RISK of heavy rainfall is now in place over Amite, Pike, and Walthall counties and the very northern reaches of Tangipahoa and Washington Parishes.
WHAT:
- SLIGHT RISK of Severe Weather
- MODERATE RISK of Heavy Rain that could lead to flash flooding
WHEN:
- For the severe weather threat: Mainly Friday afternoon into the evening hours, however isolated severe thunderstorms could happen outside of this timeframe on Friday. NOTE: Marginal severe activity is occurring now in a band from West Baton Rouge Parish northeastward toward Walthall County and will continue as part of the overall event.
- For the heavy rainfall threat: Mainly Friday morning through the overnight hours.
WHERE: Over the entire area with —
- Lowest Severe Weather threat over coastal Mississippi
- Highest Excessive Rainfall threat over Amite, Pike, and Walthall counties and the very northern reaches of Tangipahoa and Washington Parishes.
CONFIDENCE: We are confident that there will be thunderstorms across the area and that a few will be strong to marginally severe. We have less confidence in exactly where those strong/severe storms will occur. Given the early occurrence of the band of convection stretched across Iberville Parish northeastward to beyond Walthall County, confidence of Flash Flooding is becoming high especially in southwest Mississippi.
Impacts: The main threats associated with any severe storms will be:
- Damaging Winds: Wind gusts greater than 60 mph are possible.
- Large Hail: Large hail of up to 1 inch in diameter will be possible.
- Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are possible.
- Rainfall: In addition to the severe weather threat, isolated, heavy rainfall rates of 2 to 4+ inches an hour is forecast. Street flooding is likely from some storms, and isolated flash flooding will be possible in the areas that receive the most rain.
