Here is an update concerning Hurricane Rafael currently in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Changes from previous update:
- Forecast track for Rafael continues to slowly shift farther south and west of Louisiana and Mississippi.
- The forecast intensity is unchanged from the previous advisory, near Category 3 intensity before landfall in western Cuba then gradually weakening as it moves through the central Gulf of Mexico.
Overview:
- Hurricane Rafael is beginning to undergo rapid intensification and is forecast to become a Category 2 within the coming hours. There is a chance it becomes a Category 3 before landfall in western Cuba later today.
- The forecast track still calls for a sharper turn to the west once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico where it will maintain hurricane strength for a little longer.
- Stronger wind shear and dry air will likely cause the storm to weaken when it reaches the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday/Sunday.
- Uncertainty remains regarding the extent of local impacts, if any, we can expect by Saturday through Monday.
Confidence:
- There is high confidence in the intensity forecast for Rafael through Cuba today. Once the storm reaches the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, there remains some uncertainty regarding how much the storm weakens from land interaction with Cuba and the rate of weakening of the storm once it encounters increasing wind shear and dry air by Saturday/Sunday in the central Gulf of Mexico.
- There is medium confidence in the track forecast once Rafael reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Confidence has increased in Rafael taking a sharper turn to the west on Thursday and staying farther to the south of the northern Gulf Coast.
- Uncertainty increases by Saturday/Sunday where it is less clear if Rafael will attempt to turn back toward the north or continue west or southwest into the western Gulf. If the system attempts to turn north back toward Louisiana, it would encounter higher wind shear and more dry air that would likely cause rapid weakening by Sunday/Monday.
Impacts:
- Increased rain chances, minor coastal flooding, and higher winds and seas across the coastal waters, especially hazardous for small crafts. Extent of specific impacts remains uncertain, but if current trends continue to move the track southward, little to no direct impacts can be expected from this system.
- Minor coastal flooding from the easterly fetch regardless of proximity to the storm appears to be likely to continue into the weekend.
- *IF* this storm continues to move toward the local area, any impacts would most likely occur during the Saturday through Monday time frame.
- Probability of tropical storm-force winds has decreased from yesterday for immediate coastal areas, and could continue to decrease if the current trends in the forecast track hold.
Coastal Flooding Overview:
- Persistent east and southeasterly winds over the Gulf waters, unrelated to Rafael, have resulted in tides rising above normal.
- Minor flooding is occurring and is expected to continue Wednesday night. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for all coastal areas of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi. Waters will recede during the low tide cycle today.
- Minor coastal flooding is likely to persist into the weekend, aided by Rafael’s approach.
- High tide is generally forecast to occur between 9pm and 6am along the open coast, with delayed arrival farther inland along bays, rivers, bayous, etc.
Coastal Flooding Impacts:
- Minor flooding of low lying roads, lots, and parks is likely around the time of high tide tonight in the advisory area
