Here is an update concerning the heavy rain threat tonight through Friday.
Changes from previous update:
- Confidence has increased in the placement of the heaviest rainfall totals being across northwest areas including Baton Rouge and southwest Mississippi.
- Confidence has increased in the risk for gusty winds in excess of 35-40 mph across coastal areas on Friday and a Gale Watch has been issued for the coastal waters.
- Additional cold weather products into this weekend are not expected.
Overview:
WHAT: MARGINAL RISK of Heavy Rain that could lead to localized flash flooding.
WHEN: After midnight tonight through early Friday afternoon.
WHERE: All of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi with the greatest threat across inland areas north and west of Lake Pontchartrain (see graphic).
CONFIDENCE:
- Confidence is high that winter precipitation will not occur anywhere in southern MS or southeast Louisiana with this system.
- Probability of rainfall exceeding 2 inches has decreased across the area, but confidence has increased that the inland areas north and west of Lake Pontchartrain have the highest chance for seeing the heaviest rain totals.
- Confidence is low for locally heavy rainfall across the coastal areas including the New Orleans metro as probabilities have decreased in these areas.
Impacts:
- Rainfall of 2 to 3 inches is currently forecast in northwest areas. There is a 1 in 10 (10%) chance of local amounts of 3 to 4 inches or more over these areas (see graphic).
- Rainfall rates of 1-2″ per hour could lead to runoff with ponding of water and localized flash flooding in poor drainage and urban areas.
- Gusty winds in excess of 35-40 mph are likely along the coast. Secure loose items to avoid them becoming projectiles.
