Here is an update concerning the heat threat today (and likely Tuesday) as well as the potential for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf:
Changes from previous update:
- A Heat Advisory has been issued for the I-10/12 corridor including the Baton Rouge and New Orleans Metros as well as the Mississippi Coast.
- The probability of tropical cyclone development has increased slightly to 30% this morning.
- The risk for excessive rainfall that could lead to flooding has increased for Thursday and Friday in association with this system across all of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. It is too far out to know where the heaviest rainfall will occur as this would be dependent on the eventual track of this system.
Heat Overview:
WHAT: Dangerous heat conditions with heat index values upwards of 110F today.
WHEN: Between 10 a.m. and 7 p.m. today, and likely again Tuesday.
WHERE: Along the I-10/12 Corridor spanning from Iberville and Assumption Parishes east through the Baton Rouge and New Orleans Metros and across the immediate Mississippi Coast
CONFIDENCE: We have medium confidence that hot temperatures and high humidity will occur today and could quickly lead to heat illness if precautions aren’t taken. The primary factor keeping confidence from being high is that afternoon showers and storms are still favored to develop, especially along the Southshore. This could limit the amount of time that dangerous heat indices are observed in some parts of the advisory area. Confidence is higher that less shower and storm coverage on Tuesday will lead to high heat indices that could quickly lead to heat illness if precautions aren’t taken.
Heat Impacts:
- With heat index values forecast near or above 108 degrees, heat illness can occur quickly.
- Frequent breaks in the shade or indoors, drinking plenty of water, checking on vulnerable populations susceptible to heat-related illness such as the elderly and unhoused, and bringing pets indoors and/or giving them plenty of water are all recommended during these conditions.
Tropical Overview: There is a LOW (30%) chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 7 days. An area of low pressure is forecast to form in the eastern Gulf by Wednesday and move northwest toward the northern Gulf Coast by Thursday night into Friday.
Tropical Impacts:
- Regardless of development, this system will bring a threat of locally heavy rainfall beginning Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Friday and even into the weekend potentially as it could be slow-moving.
- Elevated tides to the local area could result in minor flooding of some low lying areas along the coast late this week.
Confidence: The risk for excessive rainfall that could lead to flooding has increased for Thursday and Friday in association with this system across all of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. It is too far out to know where the heaviest rainfall will occur as this would be dependent on the eventual track of this system. Since this system has not yet developed, there is low confidence in the forecast impacts as it pertains to wind and storm surge threats, if any at all. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts over the coming days.
