Here is an update concerning the heavy rain today through Wednesday night and severe weather threat today:
Changes from previous update: The threat of severe storms has increased.
Overview:
WHAT: MODERATE RISK of Heavy Rain that could lead to flash flooding today and tonight. There is a SLIGHT RISK of Heavy Rain that could lead to flash flooding on Wednesday. There is also a SLIGHT RISK of Severe Thunderstorms that could produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes today and tonight.
WHEN: The most likely time period for heavy rainfall and flash flooding to occur will be from this evening through Wednesday morning. The most likely time period for severe storms to impact the area will be from late this afternoon through this evening.
WHERE: The greatest threat for heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding will be along and north of the I-10 corridor including locations in metro Baton Rouge, metro New Orleans, and Coastal Mississippi. The greatest threat for severe storms will be for locations adjacent to the Atchafalaya Basin and will stretch east to include portions of metro Baton Rouge.
CONFIDENCE: Confidence remains high that heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding, including some significant flash flooding, will impact portions of the area tonight into Wednesday morning. Although confidence is on the lower end on exactly where the heaviest rainfall will occur, confidence has risen that the highest risk of flash flooding will be for locations along and north of the I-10 corridor in SE LA and S MS including locations in metro Baton Rouge and metro New Orleans. Remember that although the risk is higher across a broad area, not all locations in the highest threat area will experience flash flooding impacts from this event. Confidence is lower that severe storms will develop over portions of the area today.
Impacts:
- Rainfall of 4 to 6 inches is currently forecast from tonight through Thursday. There is a low chance of local amounts of 8 inches or more.
- There is a moderate chance that high rainfall rates will result in several areas of flash flooding tonight through Wednesday morning.
- In areas that receive the most rain, life-threatening flash flooding may affect homes and businesses and/or necessitate high-water rescues tonight through Wednesday morning.
- As water drains into area rivers, there will be a threat of minor flooding along some rivers later this week and into the weekend.
- Winds over 60 mph, an isolated tornado, and hail of 1 inch in diameter or larger could accompany any severe storms that develop this afternoon into this evening.
