Here is an update concerning the severe weather and heavy rain threat this afternoon through overnight tonight:
Changes from previous update:
- The threat of severe weather has increased by one category
- The area of greatest threat (a slight risk) has shifted to include all of the local area.
Overview:
WHAT: SLIGHT RISK of Severe Weather and mainly a MARGINAL RISK of Excessive Rainfall.
WHEN: Late this afternoon and into the overnight hours tonight. Another round will be possible closer to sunrise on Saturday morning
WHERE: Across southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi
CONFIDENCE: We are confident that there will be thunderstorms across the area and that a few will be strong to severe. We have less confidence in exactly where those strong/severe storms will occur and specific timing as multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible. Additionally, heavy rainfall will be possible and flash flooding could occur where multiple storms impact the same area over a short amount of time. Similarly, less confidence in timing and exact placement.
Impacts: The main threats associated with any severe storms will be:
- Damaging Winds: Wind gusts greater than 60 mph are possible. Winds of this magnitude are capable of causing damage to trees and power lines, leading to isolated/scattered power outages Winds of this magnitude are capable of downing trees or large tree limbs leading to structural damage, and can also cause damage to weaker structures.
- Large Hail: Large hail of up to 1 inch in diameter will be possible. Hail of this size is capable of causing damage to crops and causing injury to people and animals.
- Heavy Rainfall: In addition to the severe weather threat, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is forecast over the next 48 hours with up to 6″ locally possible. Runoff will lead to ponding of water in low lying areas and areas of poor drainage. Street flooding is likely from some storms, and flash flooding will be possible in the areas that receive the most rain. Most vulnerable will be flood prone, poor drainage, and urban areas.
