Here is an update from the National Weather Service concerning the severe weather threat on Friday (3/14) and Saturday (3/15):
Changes from previous update:
- The threat of severe weather has increased.
- Confidence continues to increase regarding the risk for severe weather on Saturday.
Overview:
WHAT: MARGINAL RISK of Severe Weather on Friday (3/14) and a MODERATE RISK of Severe Weather on Saturday (3/15).
WHEN: Friday – Late Friday afternoon through the overnight hours (5 p.m. to 4 a.m.). Saturday – Late Saturday morning through the late evening hours. The time frame remains broad as there could be storms ahead of the cold front in addition to along the cold front. Refinement and additional graphics will be provided as forecast confidence increases.
WHERE: All of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi, especially along and north of the I-10/12 corridor.
CONFIDENCE:
- Friday:
- Confidence is low that there will be thunderstorms across the area.
- Confidence is medium regarding the timing that any storms develop across our area.
- Saturday:
- We are confident there will be thunderstorms across the area, and that a few to several of them will be severe.
- Confidence in timing and severe weather risk is gradually increasing.
- High confidence that any severe thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail greater than an inch in diameter, and tornadoes.
- Confidence is higher along and north of the I-10/12 corridor for locally heavy rainfall of up to 2-3 inches, but most places are unlikely to exceed 2 inch rain totals.
Impacts:
Friday – The main threats associated with any severe storms will be:
- Damaging wind gusts as high as 60 mph.
- Large hail of up to 1 inch in diameter.
- A tornado cannot be ruled out.
Saturday – The main threats associated with any severe storms will be:
- Damaging wind gusts in excess of 60-80 mph. Winds of this magnitude are capable of causing damage to trees, structures impacted by nearby trees, and power lines, leading to isolated/scattered power outages
- Large hail of up to 2 inches in diameter. Hail of this size is capable of causing damage to crops and causing injury to people and animals.
- Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong and/or long-tracked.
- Runoff will lead to ponding of water in low lying areas and areas of poor drainage. Isolated flash flooding, especially over urban areas cannot be ruled out.
