Here is an update concerning Tropical Depression 2:
- Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches have been issued for immediate coastal areas from the mouth of the MS River to the MS/AL state line. This does NOT include western Orleans Parish.
- Storm surge values have also been added across the SE LA and S MS coast with 2-4ft of flooding above ground for immediate coastal areas east of the MS River and 1-3ft of flooding above ground elsewhere along the coast.
Overview:
- Tropical Depression Two (TD2) is now estimated to have sustained winds of 35 mph and the pressure has fallen to 1007mb.
- TD2 remains located over the northeastern Gulf and basically drifting to the northwest. It is still very poorly organized. It will continue to drift northwestward as it gradually becomes better organized over the next 12-24 hours. It will then turn more westward in response to a strong upper level high pressure building in from the northwest.
- The storm is now forecast to move westward across the coastal waters east of the MS Delta and coming onshore Wednesday evening over SE LA.
- As it approaches the coast it will encounter strong shear out of the northeast and is expected to be very lopsided, so the heaviest rain is expected to remain well on the south side of the storm while the wind and coastal flooding impacts will be more on the north side of the storm.
- Rapid intensification still does not appear to be likely with this system based on current and forecast environmental conditions for the next few days.
Confidence:
- If the current forecast holds, we are confident that minor to moderate impacts will be experienced across the local area.
- However, there is still lower than normal confidence in the intensity forecast and there could still be adjustments to the forecast impacts while the system continues to organize.
Impacts:
This system will not bring any significant impacts to the local area through Tuesday. However, the following impacts will be possible during the midweek timeframe.
- Tropical storm winds, especially in the form of gusts, are likely with the greatest threat along/south of the I-10/12 corridor. A few places could see damaging wind gusts with the main concern currently being isolated power outages.
- Minor to moderate storm surge flooding with up to 2-4ft of flooding above ground for immediate coastal areas east of the MS River. 1-3ft of flooding above ground elsewhere along the coast.
- Rainfall of 2-5 inches is currently forecast across immediate coastal areas of southeastern Louisiana with lower amounts farther inland. Locally higher rainfall amounts will be possible, and high rainfall rates could result in localized flooding – especially if the track shifts farther north. Again, the heaviest rainfall will be on the south side of the storm, so if the track trends further south, the heavy rainfall threat will diminish over land.