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Hurricane Sally Update - 9/14/20 12:00pm

Click HERE for an update concerning Hurricane Sally

Changes from previous update: 

  • Sally is now a Category 1 Hurricane

  • It is expected to increase to category 2 intensity before landfall

Overview:

Hurricane Sally is forecast to move generally west-northwestward through today and slow down as it approaches the mouth of the MS River, then slowly turn more northerly early Tuesday. Sally is forecast to intensify to a category 2 hurricane prior to landfall. Where Sally eventually slows and turns north will be a big factor in impacts for the region.

Confidence:

  • There is below normal confidence in the track and intensity forecast. The expected impacts could still change depending on track and intensity.

Impacts:

Storm Surge:

  • A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from the Port Fourchon to the MS/AL border.
  • Possible storm surge inundation levels:
    • The Mouth of the MS River to Ocean Springs: 7 to 11 feet
    • Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border: 5 to 8 feet
    • Lake Pontchartrain and Maurepas: 4 to 6 feet
    • Port Fourchon to the mouth of the MS River: 3 to 5 feet
    • Morgan City to Port Fourchon: 1 to 3 feet
  • Expect low-lying, coastal roads to become impassable due to flooding

  • Some areas may become cut off or inaccessible 

Rainfall/Flooding:

  • Flash Flood Watch in effect tonight through Wednesday afternoon.

  • Rainfall of 8 to 16 inches with locally higher amounts of over 24 inches possible

  • Depending on where the heavy rain falls in relation to river drainage basins, river flooding could develop.

  • Possible slow movement of this system could create significant rainfall and associated flooding threats

Wind and tornado:

  • Sustained tropical storm force winds with higher gusts are forecast with hurricane force wind gusts possible. Parts of SE LA may see sustained hurricane force winds especially along the coast east of the MS River.

  • These winds could result in minor damage mainly to trees, power lines, and weaker structures. 

  • A few tornadoes will be possible in the storm’s rain bands. Tornadoes in these situations are typically short-lived, but they move very quickly.

Attached briefing highlights the threats associated with this system.

Additional Information and Resources:

New Orleans Website: www.weather.gov/neworleans

NWS New Orleans DSS Website: http://www.weather.gov/lix/embrief

NWS New Orleans Tropical Page: https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=lix

River Gauges and Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lix

NWS New Orleans Facebook: www.facebook.com/NWSNewOrleans

NWS New Orleans Twitter: https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans

Online Severe Weather Reporting: https://www.weather.gov/lix/submit_storm_report

National Hurricane Center Website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

The next update will be sent around 5 PM CDT. If you have any questions in the interim or need additional information, please do not hesitate to contact us. We can be reached by phone at 504-522-7330 or 985-649-0429. Use extension 4 to speak with a forecaster. Alternatively, you can reach us by email by replying to this message or sending an email to sr-lix.forecasters@noaa.gov. Both methods will be delivered to the forecasters on shift at the office.

Regards,

Megan Williams
Meteorologist
NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge

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